2017 Moose Resorts NCAA Tournament Pool

FINAL STANDINGS

4/3/17 11:45pm - Congratulations to this year's winners, who cashed in when the Tar Heels cut down the nets.

• 1st - momoffive2 - 117 points - $1500
• 2nd - Gerry Finally Paired with a Winner - 116 points - $450
• 3rd - RobWarshaw4 - 115 Points - $230
• 4th - OlivePicker-2 - 113 Points - $110

Congratulations to all of you, and condolences to those who lost out after Gonzaga couldn't hold on to a thin lead at the end. Those of you who have won, please send me an email with your address. Those who get back to me on Tuesday will have their check in the mail on Wednesday.

And thus concludes another March Madness. Thank you all for playing. Enjoy the spring.

-Matt

4/1/17 11:25pm - And then there were two. The Green Cheetahs will be rooting for Gonzaga, and momoffive2 will be rooting for the Tar Heels. There are eight potential prize winners reamining, so no one is safe yet. Good luck to you all.

4/1/17 8:45pm - PAID IN FULL.

3/31/17 2:50pm - I regret to inform everyone that the last outstanding payment has not yet been received. He promised me it went in the mail on Monday, but if I don't have it by the time prizes are due there will be a reduction in the prize fund of $10 and a lifetime banning. The $10 will be removed from the third place prize if it comes to that. Hopefully it shows up tomorrow.

3/28/17 6:45pm - One more payment in. Just one outstanding and it has been promised to me that it's in the mail. Prize fund is now guaranteed at $2280.

3/27/17 3:30pm - Got another payment so guaranteed prize pool is now $2270, just $20 shy of the full pot. All the other promised money has come in so making progress.

3/26/17 7:25pm - The Final Four is set. Rob Warshaw is dominating the pool. He'll win if South Carolina beats Gonzaga in the first Final Four game regardless of how the other games go, and may still win even if Gonzaga prevails in that first game. He'll win a prize as long as Gonzaga doesn't cut down the nets on Monday.

There are five entries that can win the top prize. Without further ado, here is how the tourney can play out from here...

I will continue to update the remaining unpaid entries throughout the week. Good luck to all of you remaining, as well as to all of you who have a rooting interest in one of the remaining teams. Have a great week, and good luck.

3/26/17 4:45pm - In case you were wondering, no one picked South Carolina to make the Final Four. Not a soul.

3/26/17 1:40am - RobWarshaw5 is two clear of the field with 84 points after correctly picking the Oregon win yesterday. He also leads the pack with a 31.2% chance of winning the pool. He's also one of just nine left with any chance of taking home the top prize. Only 19 out of the 229 entrants (8.3%) correctly predicted both of yesterday's games.

As always, at the conclusion of Sunday's games I'll post how all eight Final Four outcomes would pay out, though that will take me a little time to put together. It should be up 30-60 minutes after the conclusion of the second game.

We're in the home stretch here with just five games remaining in the tournament. Good luck.

3/25/17 6:15am - Maybe I should've had a little more caffeine and stayed up to see the end of that epic Florida-Wisconsin game. That running three-point basket to give Florida the win in overtime kept a few brackets alive, as twelve brackets predicted Florida winning this round. Only two had picked Wisconsin, with no one picking Wisconsin to win the whole thing.

As anticipated, last night has brought some more clarity to our contest here. Only 21 of the brackets (9.2%) still have a chance at the top prize, which is guaranteed at $1500. (Note: if I have trouble with those last three collections the prizes for 2nd-4th will each be reduced $10. I like the round number for the top prize.) 59 brackets (25.8%) still have a chance at some level of prize. We have a three-way tie at the top, with RobWarshaw1, RobWarshaw5, and Gus 55 all with 70 points. Cruelly though, Gus 55 can finish no higher than second. RobWarshaw5 also has the most ways to win the tournament. That entry takes down the top prize in 24 of the remaining 128 scenarios (18.8%). If you combine the chances of Rob's three remaining entries that can win, he has a 32.0% chance of winning this thing. Great work Rob! Patty Guitar has the most chances for any prize out of all the remaining entries, cashing in 32.8% of the remaining outcomes.

That's it for now. For those who are still in the running so far, congratulations. Enjoy today's games.

3/24/17 9:20pm - Quick note: I have entered South Carolina as a winner due to their big lead. If Baylor comes back I'll correct it in the morning.

Collections are improving. We're down to 8 unpaid, and I have assurances 5 of those are in the mail from people I trust. I will guarantee $2260 of the $2290 prize pool at this point. Hopefully the other three will come through shortly.

3/24/17 7:00am - We're down to twelve teams left, and Arizona's loss last night has knocked several brackets out of contention. We're now down to 46 potential winners (20.1%), meaning we lost almost 3 out of every 5 potential winners just last night. 102 (44.5%) of you still have a chance of winning some prize. RobWarshaw5 and JoeGuzzardi1 are tied for first place. RobWarshaw5 also has the most paths to the win, taking the top prize in 15.6% of the remaining 2048 possible tournament outcomes. Tonight we'll be down to 128 possible outcomes, sending many more brackets to the trash heap.

With regards to entry fees, I heard from a lot of people when I sent out my nasty emails yesterday. I'm feeling better about the state of collections. However there are still three entries with names I don't know and no responses. I hope to hear from those names today. If not I'll probably issue final warnings.

Good luck to you all in tonight's games.

3/23/17 2:05pm - OK, the way I see it, there are four types of contestants in this pool...

First are those who sent in their payments on time without prompting...

Second are those who were a bit late, but still have paid by now...

Third are the people who haven't paid yet, but have contacted me with a good reason, such as I'm going to see them in person shortly...

And, finally, there are the people who just haven't paid...

Today's collections brought us up to 209 paid out of 229 (91.3%), but it still leaves the pot $200 shy. I'll start sending out the emails of shame.

In other news, the second weekend of games starts up tonight. I doubt I'll stay up for the ends of the games, but I'll certainly have the standings updated first thing tomorrow morning. Enjoy the games, and good luck.

3/22/17 1:05pm - 11 received today, leaving 28 unpaid. That brings us up to 87.8%. Still a long way to go...

3/21/17 8:05pm - Decent progress was made on the collections front today with 36 more entry fees showing up. We're now up to 190 paid (83%). That still leaves 39 unpaid (17%). A small number of this group has written to me about the circumstances around the delay, but most are just late. Please get those checks in the mail now if you haven't already! Just think of me like a PBS pledge drive. The whining will stop when I hit my collections target.

3/20/17 8:50am - The standings have been updated with payment information. Still a disappointing 75 entries remain unpaid. If you haven't sent in your entry fee please write that check now and get it out in tomorrow's mail. Thank you.

3/20/17 3:05am - Wow. I was on a flight from Las Vegas to Hartford for the final games of the night, and only learned about Duke's defeat from the eight trillion or so text messages that greeted me upon landing. That took out the championship pick for another 12 percent of the entries, and sent a lot of brackets to the shredder. We're starting to get a little definition in the pool. Congrats to, you guessed it, Preston, who is in first place for the third straight day.

Now that the first weekend is done the "possible outcomes" tab is back in play. When you go to the Standings page you can use the drop-down menu on the top right to go to that page, and it'll tell you if you're still alive for a prize. Surprisingly, a full 72.5% of the entires are alive for some kind of payout. (Note: all three of my entries are in the other 27.5% so you can trust my integrity for one more year I guess.) 47.2% of you can still win the top prize. RobWarshaw5 has the most paths to the top prize, winning in 7.8% of outcomes. I'm guessing all of them require Oregon getting to the final game. Remember all, when looking at the pool chances it treats every possible outcome as having an equal chance, so it's treating every game like a coin flip as opposed to handicapping probabilities.

Finally, I will start processing all the payments I've received tomorrow and will update the pool Tuesday or so with a "paid" and "not paid" column. Please get those payments in ASAP if you haven't already.

Have a great week.

3/19/17 3:40am - After the Villanova upset things calmed down quite a bit. Only one more bracket lost its champion (FSU) so the standings didn't jumble too much. Preston and JoeGuzzardi1 are tied for first with 40 out of a possible 48 points. Baer Necessities and Gus 55 share the distinction of having the greatest possible remaining score of 152.

With apologies, I will be away from my computer for much of Sunday so the standings may or may not get updated before Monday morning. I'll try but I'm not sure what my wifi options will be. The Monday morning update will have all the scenarios run so all entrants will be able to see if they are mathematically alive or mathematically eliminated.

Until then, enjoy your Sunday. Good luck.

3/18/17 6:00pm - Calm first rounds usually equal crazy second rounds. One entry had Notre Dame cutting down the nets, and 37 had Villanova winning. That sends 39 total entries to the sidelines with 190 still alive. Preston still two clear of the field with his whole Final Four alive.

3/18/17 3:15am - The first round is now complete, and Preston is in sole possession of the lead with an impressive 30 out of 32 games correctly picked in the first round. However, almost everyone is still alive in the pool. Only one entry has lost their champion pick so far (SMU). Two entries have lost a team from the final game. Only eleven Final Four teams are gone. So, there's a lot of basketball yet to be played.

For those new to the pool, after Sunday's games the software will run all 32,768 possible ways the tournament can finish, and will let everyone know if they're alive or mathematically eliminated. For now though, enjoy the weekend's games. Usually a calm first round means lots of upsets in the second round. Maybe that will hold true here...

3/17/17 2:25am - The first sixteen games are in the books, and three brackets are still perfect. They are Austin321, alfetta2000, and Jok Itch. No one has had his or her champion eliminated yet. Still wide open.

I let in a couple late brackets this year that were past the noon deadline but before the first tip. Looking at the site I now see eight more brackets tried to get in after the fact. None of those were accepted. My apologies if the site was slow to process some last-minute entries, but I can't add entries back in this late into the tourney. Sorry. If you feel you got your entry in in time but it's not on the list of entries, please let me know ASAP so I can research the technical issues behind it.

3/16/17 5:50pm - If Minnesota comes back I'll need to make a correction...

3/16/17 12:10pm - We've got 229 entries this year, slightly down from last year. That's not surprising because years where UConn fails to make the tournament have traditionally been down years. While this pool has grown in geographic diversity over the years, it remains heavily Connecticut-centric. This is still a good amount of entries, yielding a prize structure of $1500/$450/$230/$110 for the top four spots. These numbers are, as always, subject to change in the event of non-payment.

Please check ASAP to make sure your bracket made it in. If for some reason it didn't please forward me your confirmation email showing your entry. I'll throw it in if the time stamp is right and I get the email quickly (FYI this has never been necessary). If you're trying to enter after this update, you're too late and your entry was not accepted.

A quick apology to all those whose pools I usually enter this time of year. It's been a crazy time and I did not have any time to enter other contests this year. Hopefully I'll be back poring over multiple brackets again next year.

For those of you wondering about statistics, this may be the most balanced pool I've ever seen, with five teams chosen to win in more than 10% of the brackets. All four number one seeds and Duke got a lot of love. UCLA and Arizona each had more than 5%. Only sixteen entrants chose a winner from outside those seven teams.

I'll be away from my computer for much of the day so updates will be sporadic. I'll get the standings updated as often as possible.

Good luck to all of you. Get those checks in the mail! Thanks.

3/16/17 8:30am - 193 entries. Roughly on pace with last year.

3/15/17 8:30pm - 137 entries so far.

3/14/17 9:30pm - At 75 entries. A little ahead of last year's pace. I was worried that UConn being out of the tournament would slow things down. So far looks like I was wrong.

3/12/17 6:55pm - Welcome to the 18th annual Moose Resorts NCAA Basketball Pool, home of big prizes and dated HTML web pages. I expect approximately 175-250 entrants this year, which would yield a first place prize of over $1000. Full details and rules are in the Frequently Asked Questions, but here are the highlights:

• $10 per entry (enter as many times as you want, but give each entry a unique, PG-13 or tamer name).
• Click on the above link to fill out your entry online.
• You must include your real name and email address in the right spots on the entry form. Only your entry name will show up on the website. I will not publish your real name online unless it's also your entry name.
• 65% for 1st place, 20% for 2nd place, 10% for 3rd place, 5% for 4th place (values may be rounded, but 100% of entry fees will be paid out as prizes).
• We are not picking the "First Four" games. You can wait until those games are over if you choose, or you can just fill out the bracket now and if you pick the winner of a play-in game to advance past their next opponent, you'll get points no matter which team advances.
• Please put your check in the mail ASAP for your entry fees, sending them to:
  
  redcated
  Make sure you include the names of the entries the check is paying for somewhere in your correspondence. Checks must be in the mail by Thursday!!! Also, don't send me PayPal without contacting me first! See the FAQ for more details on electronic payments.
• Picks must be submitted and time stamped before 12:00 noon EDT Thursday, March 16th or they will not be accepted.
• Don't forget to fill in the tiebreaker!
• The points per round are 1, 2, 4, 7, 11, 16.

If you're new to the pool, and want to see what the pool page looks like, here's last year's pool.

Questions? Email me here.