2014 Moose Resorts NCAA Tournament Pool


4/7/14 11:55pm - Congratulations to the UConn Huskies, and to the fine prognosticators who picked them to actually win this tournament. Hometown bias paid off for the locals this year. The under hit in a big way, making Laila Cauley the winner of the top prize of 1450. Congrats! UConn fan Homer's Oddessy has plenty to be happy about tonight as well, picking up 450 that he can use on some spiffy national championship t-shirts. Third and fourth prizes had been wrapped up before tonight, but congrats to JayHilby's Heart and Bob Salo for cashing in as well.

Thank you all for playing. See you in 2015. Keep this page bookmarked because the pool will be right back here in 48 weeks or so.

4/6/14 12:35pm - The Las Vegas over/under seems to be settling in around 134.5, which would make Laila Cauley the strong favorite tomorrow, probably in the range of 2-1 to 5-2. Vegas is frequently wrong though, as UConn's win last night demonstrated.

4/5/14 11:45pm - Well, UConn's amazing run has continued, and they'll face Kentucky in the final. Huskies vs. Wildcats. Ollie vs. Calipari. Good vs. Evil. To heck with pool administrator impartiality... I hope UConn wins easily.

As far as the pool goes, it doesn't matter who wins. All that matters is the amount of points scored. Homer's Oddessy (I don't know if that's an intentional misspelling or not) and Laila Cauley will go head to head for the title, with a cool thousand riding on whether or not the game has more or less than 146 points scored. Homer wins at 147 and up, Laila wins at 145 and under. 146 would lead to the first ever tie for the title. JayHilby's Heart locked up third place in yet another strong showing, and poor Bob Salo will have to settle for fourth after Kentucky's late three-pointer ripped a guaranteed first-place pool finish from his hands in very cruel fashion.

Next update Tuesday morning. Good luck to the two entries fighting it out for all the marbles.

Scenario #1
UConn over Kentucky

1st Place (tie) - 111 - Homer's Oddessy (tiebreak: 153)
1st Place (tie) - 111 - Laila Cauley (tiebreak: 139)
3rd Place - 109 - JayHilby's Heart
4th Place - 105 - Bob Salo
Scenario #2
Kentucky over UConn

1st Place (tie) - 95 - Homer's Oddessy (tiebreak: 153)
1st Place (tie) - 95 - Laila Cauley (tiebreak: 139)
3rd Place - 93 - JayHilby's Heart
4th Place - 89 - Bob Salo

3/31/14 6:50pm - ...and that last payment did indeed arrive in today's mail. We are paid in full and the prize fund is official.

3/31/14 4:00pm - One more entry in via PayPal. Only two left to go, both from the same individual. He's promised me that the check's in the mail. Hopefully by tomorrow I'll be reporting another year of 100% collections.

3/31/14 1:00pm - Two more paid entries gets top prize to $1420. Hopefully the other three will come in shortly.

3/30/14 8:00pm - First, the ugly. I will publish the real names of all people who haven't paid by tomorrow night. If you're unpaid, send me an email ASAP. You should have received an email from me on Saturday with instructions for payment. If you didn't get it, check your spam folder.

Now, the good stuff. We have seven potential winners, and twelve potential prize winners. You'll notice below that in all cases, the winner of the final game doesn't matter to the top two spots. However, the score might. Also, in a few cases a winner may be voided for non-payment! That would be a first. If I was Homer's Oddessy (sic), I'd pay up just as fast as I could type.

Here are all the ways this could end up.

Scenario #1
Florida over UConn
Wisconsin over Kentucky
Florida over Wisconsin

1st Place (tie) - 110 - kohliman2 (tiebreak: 154)
1st Place (tie) - 110 - Juniors1023 (tiebreak: 144)
1st Place (tie) - 110 - McDonald2 (tiebreak: 138)
4th Place - 107 - Rgravel
Scenario #2
Florida over UConn
Wisconsin over Kentucky
Wisconsin over Florida

1st Place (tie) - 94 - kohliman2 (tiebreak: 154)
1st Place (tie) - 94 - Juniors1023 (tiebreak: 144)
1st Place (tie) - 94 - McDonald2 (tiebreak: 138)
4th Place - 91 - Rgravel
Scenario #3
Florida over UConn
Kentucky over Wisconsin
Florida over Kentucky

1st Place - 110 - RAINOJ
2nd Place - 107 - Rgravel
3rd Place - 106 - Dr. Jay
4th Place - 105 - Bryan Cauley1
Scenario #4
Florida over UConn
Kentucky over Wisconsin
Kentucky over Florida

1st Place - 94 - RAINOJ
2nd Place - 91 - Rgravel
3rd Place (tie) - 90 - Dr. Jay (tiebreak: 145)
3rd Place (tie) - 90 - Wudever (tiebreak: 145)
Scenario #5
UConn over Florida
Wisconsin over Kentucky
UConn over Wisconsin

1st Place - 116 - Bob Salo
2nd Place (tie) - 111 - Laila Cauley (tiebreak: 139)
2nd Place (tie) - 111 - Homer's Oddessy (tiebreak: 153)
4th Place - 109 - JayHilby's Heart
Scenario #6
UConn over Florida
Wisconsin over Kentucky
Wisconsin over UConn

1st Place - 100 - Bob Salo
2nd Place (tie) - 95 - Laila Cauley (tiebreak: 139)
2nd Place (tie) - 95 - Homer's Oddessy (tiebreak: 153)
4th Place - 93 - JayHilby's Heart
Scenario #7
UConn over Florida
Kentucky over Wisconsin
UConn over Kentucky

1st Place (tie) - 111 - Homer's Oddessy (tiebreak: 153)
1st Place (tie) - 111 - Laila Cauley (tiebreak: 139)
3rd Place - 109 - JayHilby's Heart
4th Place - 105 - Bob Salo
Scenario #8
UConn over Florida
Kentucky over Wisconsin
Kentucky over UConn

1st Place (tie) - 95 - Homer's Oddessy (tiebreak: 153)
1st Place (tie) - 95 - Laila Cauley (tiebreak: 139)
3rd Place - 93 - JayHilby's Heart
4th Place - 89 - Bob Salo

Good luck to all who remain. Next update after Saturday's games. I hope a bunch of you UConn fans find your way to Dallas. Enjoy the final three games.

3/30/14 4:45pm - MSU's exit busted brackets left and right. Only 10 entries still alive for the top prize. Only 19 entries alive for any prize at all. Full breakdown of potential outcomes approximately one hour after last game is completed.

3/29/14 11:15pm - Whether you think the bad officiating affected the outcome, or whether you think the bad officiating luckily still let the best team win, Wisconsin has advanced on the brackets. BMW1 and RGravel are tied for the lead, but McDonald2 has the most chances to win.

My nasty emails regarding unpaid entries got one more payment in, so we're down to five missing. All monies not collected will come out of first place, so all the other places are guaranteed at this point. If no more money came in, prizes would be $1400/$450/$220/$110. If I don't hear from the remaining unpaids via email by Monday evening, their real names will go up on the web site as I ask for help reminding them of their financial obligations. Thanks in advance for all your help.

3/29/14 1:15pm - I'm back from a lengthy stint on the road, and finally have had some time to catch up on the paid entries. We now have 217 payments in out of 223. Six delinquencies is still a lot for this deep in the pool. Emails are going out now to those who owe. Those who continue to fail to pay will have real names revealed.

Now on to the pool itself. With seven games left to go, 26 people still have a chance at the top prize. Bryan Cauley1 has a one point lead thanks to his well-placed faith in UConn. However, Homer's Oddessy (sic) has the most potential combinations that would lead to the top prize, winning in 18% of the possible outcomes. It's important to note that that entry is delinquent in payment and will be removed if payment is not promptly received.

A quick reminder that after tomorrow's games I'll provide a detailed breakdown on the eight remaining scenarios so you'll know exactly what you need to root for. Good luck to all who are still in the running.

3/28/14 1:05am - Eleven games left to go, and BMW1 has a one point lead on the field. Not a lot of bracket busting tonight with three top seeds winning and not a lot pool-wise riding on Dayton-Stanford.

One note, I haven't been able to update the paid standings for a few days. Those will be updated on Saturday, with nastygrams following quickly to the unpaid entries. If for some reason you haven't paid yet please get those checks in the mail right now. Thank you.

3/24/14 7:55pm - Payments received today have been processed.

3/24/14 4:15am - The first weekend is in the books. It was one of the better opening weekends in recent memory, in my opinion, and hopefully will just be the beginning of some exciting games in the Sweet Sixteen and beyond.

JayHilby's Heart apparently is smarter than the other three picks from JayHilby's brain and has sole possession of the lead. That pick set also has the highest possible score, the most outcomes that give it first place, and the most outcomes that give it any prize. Remember, however, when I say "outcomes", I'm just talking about the 32,768 ways the pool can finish, not making any differentiation between them. So, there are 2,048 ways Dayton can win, there are 2,048 ways Florida can win, and the software is treating them all as equally likely.

98 of the entries (43.9%) are still mathematically alive for the top prize. 166 entries (74.4%) are still alive for one of the four prizes. That's a pretty good amount with 48 of the 63 games in the books. Should make for an exciting second weekend in the pool.

Last but not certainly not least, PAY UP!!! I still have over 100 unpaid entries. If your check is in the mail, that's great. No need to do anything. However, if it's not in the mail, please make sure you send it today. Thank you.

Enjoy your week, and good luck to you all.

3/23/14 9:15pm - I know I said I'd provide the round-end update tonight, but that was before I realized the last game would end after midnight. I'll run the full update in the morning. It will be up before 7:30am.

3/23/14 7:40pm - I'm back in town. Today's first three games livened things up. Fourteen entrants had Wichita State winning it all, six entries had Kansas, and one had North Carolina. Sunday has provided a lot more clarity. Also, I have processed all the payments received through Saturday.

3/23/14 7:55am - A lackluster afternoon was followed up by an exciting evening of games, but not a lot in the way of upsets. Normally a 7-seed beating a 2-seed would send a lot of brackets to the scrap heap, but with a majority of the pool entrants residing in Connecticut the pro-UConn bias was rewarded for many. A vast majority of the brackets are still alive for the prize. After tonight's games, the pool software will calculate exactly how many brackets are mathematically alive for the prizes.

Two brackets are tied for first with 40 out of a possible 48 points. Chazmac1 and MichaelEagen both have turned in impressive perfomances so far, but arguably the most impressive bracket belongs to RGravel due to the highest potential score of 150.

Updates may be a little spotty today as I'll be out of the house during many of the games. It takes the software a little while to crank through all 32,768 ways the tournament can finish after the first weekend, but I'll have the standings with potential outcomes posted within an hour after tonight's final buzzer. Good luck, and enjoy the games.

3/22/14 9:30pm - The upset of Syracuse busts another eight brackets. In unrelated news, I am so sick of the "Ahhhhhh! Chris Webber!" guy.

3/22/14 8:20am - After a great first round of games (the NCAA wants you to call it the second round, but they're wrong), there's quite a logjam at the top of the standings. Eight brackets are tied for first with 27 out of 32 correct picks. 216 out of 223 entries still have their championship pick alive, and only 47 out of the total 892 Final Four teams picked have been eliminated. That means a lot of high potential scores are still on the boards, and a vast majority of the brackets are still alive.

Let's hope the next two days' games are every bit as exciting as the first two days'. Good luck to you all. Go UConn.

3/21/14 11:59pm - Sorry for the delay in updates. Been out of pocket this evening. I will update with last two evening games in the morning.

3/21/14 4:00pm - The standings have been updated with all payments I received in the mail today.

3/21/14 2:25pm - The Blue Devils' defeat has sent six brackets to the shredder, including one of mine. The potential points column in the standings is now showing some differentiation.

3/21/14 7:15am - Sorry. My 6:30am update had an error. Apparently I forgot to mark San Diego State as a winner. Oops.

What a great first day of games. Four overtimes, a great comeback, and a couple great upsets. I'm glad to see that despite the poor work of the selection committee (#brokenrecord) and football-based conference realignment (#brokenrecord2) this is still the best sports weekend of the year. No one was perfect on day one, but three entries did manage a very impressive 15 out of 16 correct. They are kohliman2, TGravel, and JayHilby3. Only one bracket is busted (Ohio State?) so there are still a lot of high scores available. It's still not time for 99.6% of you to panic.

This is also a good time for my annual reminder that you should print out my brackets if you feel the need to audit my performance. All three of my entries are under my real name. You're going to have to scroll down pretty far in the standings to find them right now. One of these years I'm going to win a prize (#brokenrecord3) so any of you CPA's who aren't too busy with your other auditing duties this time of year (yeah, right!) are welcome to provide the public service of verifying my honesty.

Enjoy today's games.

3/20/14 10:00pm - Thank you UConn. What a game. Then, switching over to the St. Louis vs. NC State game led to just as much excitement. Gotta love the tournament.

3/20/14 7:10pm - All payments received in today's mail are now reflected on the standings sheet.

3/20/14 5:25pm - With only five games in the books, we already are down to 4% of the pool with perfect brackets. Something tells me Buffett is going to keep his billion.

3/20/14 12:00pm - Entries are now closed. The preliminary entry tally is 223. That may be reduced due to accidental duplicate brackets and non-pays. If 223 stays as the official number of entrants, the prizes will be $1450 for first, $450 for second, $220 for third, $110 for fourth. Good luck!

In case you're curious, the most popular picks to win it all were Florida (32%), Michigan State (14%), Louisville (13%), and Arizona (12%).

3/20/14 11:00am - One hour to go. 220 entries in the books. That would put first place at $1430.

3/20/14 10:10am - 201 entries. First prize currently at $1310 assuming everyone pays. Four entries away from reaching last year's total of 205.

3/20/14 9:40am - 194 entries. Current favorites for best entry name of the year are "ShaBazzer Beater" and "Acie Earl Gray Tea".

3/20/14 4:15am - 176 entries. We've caught up to last year. First prize would be $1150 even if we didn't get any more entries.

3/19/14 9:10pm - At this time on Wednesday last year we had 152 entries. This year we have 141 at the same time. Catching up. Usually get about 40-50 on Thursday morning.

3/19/14 4:05pm - 103 entries. Not far behind last year's pace. I'm glad to see the selection committee's idiocy hasn't scared off too many entrants. (No, I will not let that go.)

3/19/14 6:20am - 64 entries so far. About 10%-15% behind last year's pace. If that trend holds we'd be looking at 170-180 entries. We need 153 entries to get first place to one thousand, so that's still pretty good.

3/16/14 7:50pm - The selection committee has finished its job (in unusually poor fashion, I might add), and the entry form is now live. Go ahead and submit your picks. Good luck to you all.

3/16/14 2:45pm - Welcome to the 15th annual Moose Resorts NCAA Basketball Pool, home of big prizes and dated HTML web pages. I expect approximately 175-250 entrants this year, which would yield a first place prize of over $1000. Full details and rules are in the Frequently Asked Questions, but here are the highlights:

If you're new to the pool, and want to see what the pool page looks like, here's last year's pool.

Questions? Email me here.