2015 Moose Resorts NCAA Tournament Pool

FINAL STANDINGS

4/6/15 11:40pm - What an epic final game. This was one of the most exciting Final Fours in memory. I hope you all enjoyed the exciting basketball. As for the pool, my long nightmare is over. After fifteen years of entering three entries each contest, my 0-for-45 streak is now 1-for-48. Go ahead and call me all the names you want, I'm keeping the cash. Matthew Olsen 2 is this year's winner to the tune of $1300, minus any hedges he may or may not have made. Cnolan11 put together a very impressive bracket for second, and will take home $390 for his troubles. Hingle McCringleberry takes $200 for third, and Kim Hughes takes $100 for fourth.

As always, thank you for playing. Bookmark this page, and check back at around 9pm Eastern on Sunday, March 13th, 2016 for next year's bracket. Enjoy the rest of your 2015, and I'll see you in March.

-Matt

4/4/15 11:30pm - Wow. What an epic game to close out the Final Four. Great runs by both teams accompanied by more questionable calls than a Jerky Boys album. Whichever team lost there was going to have valid reason to criticize the refs. Either way, one game to play for all the marbles. Start the "cheater!" chants, because Matthew Olsen 2 is in first place. I will win if Duke can take home the title on Monday. If the Badgers keep up their momentum and win the title, ByeByeBoeheim will rally for the win. No tiebreakers are in place for the remaining scenarios, so each outcome has four separate prize winners as listed below.

Good luck to you all. Enjoy Monday's game.

4/4/15 8:20pm - Michigan State's loss has eliminated ttofil from contention. There are four players remaining with a chance at the top prize, with four potential outcomes. Bryan Cauley, Hingle McCringleberry, ByeByeBoeheim, and Matthew Olsen 2 all still can win. Two of them will be gone in a few hours.

4/3/15 1:25pm - I was traveling this past week, but came home to find the last payment in my mailbox. All entries collected. Thank you to all. Prize fund is now official at $1300/$390/$200/$100.

3/30/15 2:10pm - Two more payments came in, so we're just down to one delinquent. Second prize is now up to $380.

3/29/15 7:35pm - We're down to the Final Four. With three games to play, there are eight ways this can finish. Five entries are still alive for that elusive top prize, and nineteen entries can win something. Without further ado, here is how the prizes can be distributed.

I'm typing these quickly, so if I've made any errors please bring them to my attention, as the final pool standings (and not this summary) are the binding factor.

I'm still waiting on those three entries. Both should arrive tomorrow, or I will have to doubt the accuracy of the claims that the check was indeed in the mail. Public shaming shall follow if they're not received.

Good luck to all who are still in the running, especially me (sorry, not sorry). I was in the running three years ago, and just like this year I was in need of an upset of a dominant Kentucky team. Swimming upstream again, but I'm just happy to have a shot. I will keep updating the collections throughout the week.

3/29/15 4:50pm - Quick reminder: as in past years, the standings will be slightly delayed at the end of the final game of the day because I will calculate the prize winners for each possible remaining scenario. They should be up about 60 minutes after that game ends.

3/28/15 11:35pm - Notre Dame gave it all they had, but at the end of the night, chalk held with two number one seeds advancing. Bryan Cauley still leads, but also now has the most paths to victory, taking first with eight of the remaining 32 possible outcomes (25%). Only eleven people still have a shot at first place. 31 brackets still alive for one of the top four prizes.

3/28/15 8:30pm - That Wisconsin win has eliminated half of the brackets that still had a chance. Now down to 14 (7.0%) in the running for the top prize.

3/28/15 12:50pm - One more entry collected. Now off three. Based on when I was told they went in the mail, they should arrive Monday. If any entry fees fail to show up, I will take the prize money out of the second place prize, so 1st is definitely $1300, 3rd is definitely $200, and 4th is definitely $100. Second will be between $360 and $390.

3/28/15 9:10am - With only 128 potential outcomes left for the pool, we're starting to get some clarity. There hasn't been a lot of change at the top, but a lot of entries have fallen by the wayside. We now have 28 entries (14.1%) still eligible to take home the top prize. That number should shrink quite a bit today.

Bryan Cauley is still in first place, and is one of three Cauleys in the top ten. JTack2 still has the most potential combinations to win, and that number will go through the roof if the Fighting Irish can upset Kentucky later today. I should also point out that, against all odds, one of my entries is currently ranked third. I'll bring that to your attention now so you can print out the bracket if you want to audit my progress as I try to break my streak of not cashing in my own pool. For those of you new to the pool, I have not cashed even once in the first fifteen years.

Enjoy today's games.

3/27/15 6:20am - Chalk held in all of last night's games, causing a lot of scores to skyrocket. Bryan Cauley was one of several to call all four of last night's games correctly, and he finds himself in first place. JTack2 finds himself in the enviable position of winning the tournament in 18.3% of the remaining possible scenarios, though most of those involve Notre Dame beating Kentucky tomorrow. Crista Cauley has the second most winning possibilities. Between Bryan's lead, Crista's many winning possibilities, and Laila's pool win last year, it's a Cauley world and we're just living in it.

There are still 11 games left to go this year though, which means 2,048 ways this can still play out. After tonight's games we'll be down to 128 potential outcomes, which will give us even more clarity. Have a great Friday, and enjoy tonight's games.

3/26/15 9:00pm - No collections made today, but I have heard from all four delinquent entries, and all four have promised that the check is very literally in the mail. Hopefully we're all set on that front.

3/25/15 9:45pm - Got five paid just now, so down to four. Have heard from two of them. Hopefully the other two will respond to emails soon.

While I have your attention, a couple people have asked me about the "number first" and "money number" columns. There are 32,768 ways the tournament can play out from here (fifteen games left, so two to the fifteenth power, which is 32,768). The numbers in those two columns represents the number of those scenarios in which that bracket wins or ties for first, or finishes in the money. If you divide that number by 32,768, you'll get the percentage listed in the next column. After Thursday's four games, we'll be down to 2,048 potential remaining scenarios, so most numbers will go down. Then after Friday it'll be 128. So, 32,640 potential tournament scenarios will be eliminated in the next two days. That should bring a lot of clarity.

3/25/15 6:45pm - Down to nine unpaid. Making progress, but still too many. Will be sending out emails tonight.

3/24/15 6:10pm - After processing today's payments, we're still an alarming 23 short. Nasty emails to follow after tomorrow's processing. Thanks to all of you who've paid on time.

3/23/15 6:30pm - All payments received today have been applied and are shown on the reports. A special thanks to all of you who remembered to write your entry name on your checks. That saves me a lot of time from having to flip between screens matching up entries to real names.

3/23/15 6:50am - With an exciting first two rounds in the books, we're getting a little clarity in the pool. First place currently belongs to former winner Shamgod 2 with an impressive 51 points. JTack2 leads in most possible points. The Possible Outcomes page is now live, and can let you know if you're mathematically still alive for a prize. 77 out of 199 brackets (38.7%) are still alive for the top prize, and 131 (65.8%) are still alive one of the top four prizes.

I will keep updating the standings page as payments are received. I'm currently at 110 paid out of 199. A lot of payments historically come in on Monday, so I'll hold judgment on how well collections are going until I see this evening's mail. However, if you haven't paid yet, please get a check in the mail today.

Also please note that every now and then the summary pages are incorrectly showing a team that is still alive in the eliminated red font. Don't worry about this. There's something a little buggy in the code. As long as the name of the team is correct, the font error doesn't hurt you. Sorry for any angst this may cause.

So, until Thursday's games, enjoy your week. Good luck to all those still in the running.

3/22/15 2:55pm - I think it should be fixed now.

3/22/15 2:50pm - Yes, I see that for some reason Wisconsin is showing as eliminated in the standings page. However, if you look at the bracket you'll see I haven't marked them as out. Not sure what the issue is. Hopefully it'll get rectified when the Wisconsin game is played and scored. I've opened up a help desk ticket with the software maker. Sorry for any confusion.

3/22/15 2:45pm - All payments I have are now applied and listed on the standings page. If you didn't get marked as paid yet, but you've sent the check, don't worry. If you sent money electronically or paid me in person, then you should send me an email because I've been over those logs and don't see your payment. If you haven't sent money yet, please get the check in the mail TOMORROW. Thank you for your help in keep collection issues to a minimum.

3/22/15 8:35am - The Villanova loss wrecked a handful of brackets yesterday, but the second overall seed wasn't getting that much respect from the pool participants. Only nine out of 199 brackets had them picked to win, which (along with three Iowa State and one SMU) brings the total of busted brackets to 13. TGravel and Donger1 are tied for the lead with 39, but both have holes in their Final Four. Raska2, currently in third place, has a highest possible score three points better than his nearest competition.

After today's games we'll be down to sixteen teams, which is when I'll be able to process which brackets are mathematically still alive and which ones are eliminated. I'll also work on applying payments, so starting tomorrow you'll see the "paid/not paid" column in the reports.

Good luck everyone, and enjoy today's games.

3/21/15 1:40am - After a tamer second day of the first (don't call it "second") round, we've got a four-way tie for first place. Ozamataz Buckshank may have lost sole possession of first place, but still has sole possession of the best overall possible score. The next two days should start to shake things out.

Sorry for the delay in posting stats, but business travel got in the way. Tomorrow's first update may be a little late, but things should speed up after that.

3/20/15 12:20am - What a crazy first day. Major upsets, late dramatic three-pointers, atrocious phantom goaltending calls... so much excitement. Gotta love March.

No one is perfect, but sole possession of first place and best possible score lies with Ozamataz Buckshank, with a very respectable 14 out of 16 on day one. The Iowa State upset and SMU hosing on the three-point goaltending call have eliminated four brackets, so 195 of us still have our champion alive.

Updates will be sporadic again tomorrow, sorry. I'll get to them as I'm able. Good luck to all of you, and enjoy the games.

3/19/15 8:45pm - First eight games in the books and no one is better than six out of eight. Brackets busted everywhere. Next update at end of day.

3/19/15 3:35pm - First three brackets busted courtesy of Iowa State.

3/19/15 12:05pm - 199 Brackets were entered. Assuming no duplicates or non-payments, prizes will be $1300/$390/$200/$100. First update will be after the first eight games or so as I'll be away from my computer. Good luck! Oh yeah, if you were curious, 104/199 entries (52%) chose Kentucky to win it all. I actually thought it would be more.

3/19/15 8:45am - Quick note: I've had several people tell me that they didn't get email confirmations. That's not an error of the pool software, but rather just an email issue. Something is slowing them down. Maybe it's my mail server. Maybe it's something downstream of mail server. I'm not sure. Anyways, if you got to the confirmation screen you're probably OK. If you need confirmation to put your mind at rest that I have your entry, please send me an email (email link at bottom of page). If you do this, please include your entry name(s)! The way the software is set up it's much easier to search via entry name than real name. Thank you.

3/19/15 2:50am - 162 entries. Should get over 200 with the usual late morning rush.

3/18/15 10:45am - Up to 70 entries. Roughly on pace with last year. Maybe a little ahead.

3/15/15 7:10pm - Welcome to the 16th annual Moose Resorts NCAA Basketball Pool, home of big prizes and dated HTML web pages. I expect approximately 175-250 entrants this year, which would yield a first place prize of over $1000. Full details and rules are in the Frequently Asked Questions, but here are the highlights:

• $10 per entry (enter as many times as you want, but give each entry a unique, PG-13 or tamer name).
• Click on the above link to fill out your entry online.
• Remember to include your real name and email address in the right spots on the entry form. Only your entry name will show up on the website. I will not publish your real name online unless it's also your entry name.
• 65% for 1st place, 20% for 2nd place, 10% for 3rd place, 5% for 4th place (values may be rounded, but 100% of entry fees will be paid out as prizes).
• We are not picking the "First Four" games. You can wait until those games are over if you choose, or you can just fill out the bracket now and if you pick the winner of a play-in game to advance past their next opponent, you'll get points no matter which team advances.
• Please put your check in the mail ASAP for your entry fees, sending them to:
  
  Address redacted until next year.
  
  Make sure you include the names of the entries the check is paying for somewhere in your correspondence. Checks must be in the mail by Thursday!!! Also, don't send me PayPal without contacting me first! See the FAQ for more details on electronic payments.
• Picks must be submitted and time stamped before 12:00 noon EDT Thursday, March 19th or they will not be accepted.
• Don't forget to fill in the tiebreaker!
• The points per round are 1, 2, 4, 7, 11, 16.

If you're new to the pool, and want to see what the pool page looks like, here's last year's pool.

Questions? Email me here.