2018 Moose Resorts NCAA Tournament Pool


FINAL STANDINGS


4/3/18 5:40am - One Shining Moment has played, the nets have been cut, and another tournament is over. Congratulations to Tilted Towers, who rode a great balance of early accuracy and final game picks to a five point victory. He wins the first place prize of $1340. Cmcdonald takes $410 for second, matching Tilted Towers pick for pick after the first weekend, but just couldn't close the early gap. I cashed for the second time in nineteen years by overcoming horrible first weekend picks and having the most accurate Final Four picks in the pool (three Final Four teams correct with the right final game). My tiebreaker was 1 off to give me the edge over Recruitingviolation, who may have had the most impressive run of all. His early round picks were so good it was enough to overcome the fact that he had Virginia in the title game. I take $210 for third and Recruitingviolation gets $100 for fourth.

And that's a wrap on another great year. Mixed emotions for me here as I'm sad that I'm giving up running the pool that I've run for nineteen years, but happy that it will live on in good hands with Jay. All of you can still come to this website next year on the Monday morning after the brackets are announced, and the info for the 20th Annual Moose Resorts NCAA Pool will be posted here. I'll still be entering and I hope you all will too. Thank you all for playing starting back when this pool was a stack paper entries and different colored Sharpies in each hand, and sticking with it as it grew and moved online. It's been a pleasure.

-Matt


3/31/18 10:25pm - With one game left to go, there are now just two players who can win. Both favorites, Villanova and Michigan, have reached the final. That leaves us with the reamining two possible outcomes. Tilted Towers is in the money, but exactly how much in the money is yet to be determined. The other three spots will depend on the final outcome of Monday's game. I'm one of the entries eligible for a prize (though I can do no better than third place), so if you didn't print my bracket earlier to audit my performance, you missed your opportunity.

Now we wait for the final game. Good luck to the seven entries still alive. Enjoy Monday's game, and I'll let the winners know Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Scenario #1
Michigan over Villanova

1st Place - 105 - Happy Hours Two
2nd Place (tie) - 96 - BigBC (tiebreak: 137)
2nd Place (tie) - 96 - Bob Salo (tiebreak: 127)
2nd Place (tie) - 96 - Tilted Towers (tiebreak: 145)
Scenario #2
Villanova over Michigan

1st Place - 112 - Tilted Towers
2nd Place - 107 - Cmcdonald
3rd Place (tie) - 103 - Recruitingviolation (tiebreak: 128)
3rd Place (tie) - 103 - Matthew Olsen #2 (tiebreak: 142)

3/31/18 8:40pm - I am at BigBC's house watching the game, and he is over the moon with the Michigan win. We're now down to five entries who can win. Haunted Hills and Tilted Towers are actually two separate entries from the same person so we're now down to four people who can win the pool. Good luck to you all. Extra good luck to those who are alive for the scenario where I get third place.


3/27/18 7:00pm - PAID IN FULL. Prize fund is now official.


3/26/18 7:35pm - And another two. Down to five. I believe all five remaining are being covered by the same individual, so hopefully tomorrow I can guarantee the prize fund...


3/26/18 6:20pm - Two more payments in. Down to seven outstanding.


3/26/18 6:50am - One more payment received. Nine to go.


3/25/18 7:35pm - What an epic game between Duke and Kansas. My sympathies to the Duke fans out there, and congratulations to the Jayhawks fans.

So, the Final Four is upon us. If you've been out of it since the first weekend, you're probably not even reading this. However, if you're anxiously awaiting to see if your entry is still alive, look below! I believe these are correct, but in an effort to get the scenarios up quickly I haven't proofread yet. If I've made an error, the official brackets prevail of course. Anyways, here you go...

Scenario #1
Loyola-Illinois over Michigan
Villanova over Kansas
Loyola-Illinois over Villanova

1st Place - 87 - Recruitingviolation
2nd Place (tie) - 85 - Tilted Towers (tiebreak: 145)
2nd Place (tie) - 85 - Happy Hours Three (tiebreak: 148)
4th Place - 82 - Fly Eagles Fly!
Scenario #2
Loyola-Illinois over Michigan
Villanova over Kansas
Villanova over Loyola-Illinois

1st Place - 103 - Recruitingviolation
2nd Place - 101 - Tilted Towers
3rd Place - 98 - Fly Eagles Fly!
4th Place - 96 - Cmcdonald
Scenario #3
Loyola-Illinois over Michigan
Kansas over Villanova
Loyola-Illinois over Kansas

1st Place - 89 - Mrs. Apprentice Pool Manager
2nd Place - 85 - Mavis Won
3rd Place - 84 - Bryce's Dad
4th Place - 80 - Haunted Hills
Scenario #4
Loyola-Illinois over Michigan
Kansas over Villanova
Kansas over Loyola-Illinois

1st Place - 96 - Haunted Hills
2nd Place - 94 - ACK2
3rd Place - 91 - Tyler U
4th Place - 90 - gimmegimmegimme
Scenario #5
Michigan over Loyola-Illinois
Villanova over Kansas
Michigan over Villanova

1st Place - 105 - Happy Hours Two
2nd Place (tie) - 96 - BigBC (tiebreak: 137)
2nd Place (tie) - 96 - Bob Salo (tiebreak: 127)
2nd Place (tie) - 96 - Tilted Towers (tiebreak: 145)
Scenario #6
Michigan over Loyola-Illinois
Villanova over Kansas
Villanova over Michigan

1st Place - 112 - Tilted Towers
2nd Place - 107 - Cmcdonald
3rd Place (tie) - 103 - Recruitingviolation (tiebreak: 128)
3rd Place (tie) - 103 - Matthew Olsen #2 (tiebreak: 142)
Scenario #7
Michigan over Loyola-Illinois
Kansas over Villanova
Michigan over Kansas

1st Place (tie) - 96 - Bob Salo (tiebreak: 127)
1st Place (tie) - 96 - BigBC (tiebreak: 137)
3rd Place - 94 - Happy Hours Two
4th Place - 89 - Mrs. Apprentice Pool Manager
Scenario #8
Michigan over Loyola-Illinois
Kansas over Villanova
Kansas over Michigan

1st Place - 96 - Haunted Hills
2nd Place - 94 - ACK2
3rd Place - 91 - Tyler U
4th Place - 90 - gimmegimmegimme

I did hear from that one outstanding entry, so hopefully we'll have a fully funded prize fund by the time the final rolls around. No guarantees though until the checks show up.

Good luck to those of you who are still in it. Enjoy next weekend's games. I'll update the pool website as payments (hopefully) roll in.


3/25/19 4:35pm - Chalk held in the Villanova matchup, eliminating one bracket from the top prize and four from all contention. Recruitingviolation retakes the lead. Now there are 9 (4.4%) who can win, and 20 (9.7%) who can place in the top four.

As always, I'm having a bit of a collection issue with one entry. Can't get a response to emails. If we are short one payment it will come out of second place. Everyone else has at least promised payment.


3/25/19 7:30am - Michigan's win last night added a little bit of clarity to the pool. It ended the hopes of some brackets that required that side of the bracket to generate no points through a Loyola-Florida State matchup, leaving us with just 10 brackets (4.9%) eligible to win, and 24 brackets (11.7%) eligible for a prize.

A little while after today's games complete, I'll run all eight remaining scenarios and let everyone know exactly what needs to happen for each remaining eligible entry to cash.


3/24/19 8:30pm - If you don't see any change in the standings after the Loyola-Chicago win, it's because there wasn't any. No one had either Loyola or Kansas State, so that game didn't affect the pool outcome one bit.


3/24/19 8:15am - Mrs. Apprentice Pool Manager, despite having her championship team knocked out in the first round, has taken the pool lead and keeps the lead in number of remaining scenarios where she wins (31.2%). Tilted Towers continues to have the highest possible score.

Yesterday's games provided a lot of clarity in the pool. Only 13 (6.3%) entries remain eligible to win, and only 28 (13.6%) entries remain eligible for a prize. Good luck to all of you.


3/23/19 8:00pm - All payments received to date are reflected. Still 11 unpaid entries. Five of those entries sent me an email the other day saying the payment is on its way. So, hopefully down to six.

Also, my apologies but I made an error in this morning's post. The highest potential score as of this second is Tilted Towers. BigBC has the second highest potential score. Oops. Moose Resorts regrets the error.

Enjoy tonight's games.


3/23/19 7:20am - The south bracket is now completely busted. No one has either Loyola or Kansas State in the Final Four, though one person predicted K State to win last night and two picked Loyola. Impressive enough in its own right.

There are now 2,048 ways the pool can finish up. So, when looking at the "possible outcomes" tab you'll see that the percentage chance for any specific entry winning a prize is the number of remaining scenarios where it wins divided by 2,048. 29 entries can still win (14.1%), 77 entries (37.4%) can still win a prize. Just like after last weekend's games, Recruitingviolation still has the best score, BigBC still has the best possible score, and Mrs. Apprentice Pool Manager still has the most winning scenarios.

One final note, I've been on the road all week so I haven't processed any additional payment information. I'm headed home now so tomorrow's update should have that information. If you haven't paid yet, then put that money in the mail TODAY. I hate sending nasty collection emails, but yet I have to do it every single year. Please spare me the trouble. Thank you.


3/19/19 6:05am - I know that everyone said this year was wide open, but it's still shocking the number of upsets we've had so far. Xavier's loss busted five more brackets (they didn't get a lot of respect for a 1-seed).

Going into the Sweet Sixteen, Recruitingviolation holds on to a one point lead, BigBC has the highest possible score with a maximum of 129 points, and Mrs. Apprentice Pool Manager has the most scenarios winning first place with 13.2%, though most of those scenarios involve more major upsets.

The payments page is up-to-date. 128 of you have paid (62.1%). Thank you if you're already marked as paid or have already sent in your check. If you don't fall in either of these categories, today's the day to send it.

65 brackets (31.6%) are still eligible to win the top prize. Do you want to see if you're one of them? Once you click on the Standings page choose the "Possible Outcomes" drop-down. Now that we're down to fifteen games, that means there are 32,768 (2 to the fifteenth power) ways this tournament can play out. The software has crunched all those possibilities as if they're all equally likely and has spit out everyone's chances both to win and to finish in the top four. 125 entries (60.7%) are still available for at least one of the four prizes.

Enjoy your week. Next update Thursday night if I can swing it, but certainly no later than Friday morning.


3/18/18 6:50pm - Can't be by my computer for a couple hours so I'm assuming North Carolina is going to lose given their 21-point deficit with less than twelve minutes to play. If they come back I'll fix it later. Assuming this holds, this kills another 17 brackets. They're dropping like flies...


3/18/18 5:20pm - The Syracuse upset of Michigan State knocks out a futher 27 brackets. Things are starting to get just a bit more clear in the pool...


3/18/18 12:25am - Only one bracket was busted in Saturday's games when Tennessee fell. Seven brackets were saved by the three-pointer that Michigan hit at the buzzer in the late game. Quite a finish to a good slate of games.

There's a tie for first place in the pool between Recruitingviolation and Mrs. Apprentice Pool Manager. However, both are well down the list on best possible score. Nineteen brackets still have a chance of getting to 140 or more points. This contest is still up for grabs in a big way.

I will be traveling tomorrow so updates will be sporadic once again. Enjoy the games, and good luck.


3/17/18 1:50pm - I've added the "paid/not paid" column to the standings page. Please don't worry if you've sent a check and it hasn't posted yet. So far this list just reflects people who have paid me in person and people who've sent payment electronically. I hope to catch up on checks Sunday night.

Still on the road, so updates will still be sporadic. Thanks for your patience.

If you haven't sent your check yet, please send it today. Thank you.


3/17/18 1:00am - Wow. It finally happened. The 16 vs 1 upset that's been inevitable came to pass by twenty points. Exciting basketball, but a Day Two bracket disaster for over 20% of the pool. If you just had your bracket busted, at least you know you have plenty of company. One entrant, Smashbox, correctly predicted the UMBC over Virginia upset. Recruitingviolation is in first place, but has Virginia going to the final game, so that status is in long-term jeopardy. BoeheimMustGo has the highest possible score remaining.

Enjoy the St. Patrick's Day games everyone.


3/16/18 12:30am - With the first day's action in the books, no one remains perfect. Five brackets got fifteen out of sixteen right to tie for first. The Arizona "FBI Violation" Wildcats caused the first bracket-bustings of the contest, with five entries having them slated to cut down the nets.

Good luck to all 201 entries who didn't pick Arizona. Updates will be sporadic tomorrow as I am still out of town. Enjoy the tournament.


3/15/18 6:40pm - Eight games in the books, 20 out of 206 brackets still perfect (9.7%). No Final Four picks eliminated yet. Still wide open.


3/15/18 12:15pm - Entries are now locked, and we have 206 brackets in the pool. Assuming all payments are received, the prizes will be $1340 for first place, $410 for second, $210 for third, and $100 for fourth. If you thought you entered the pool and have a confirmation email of your bracket, but yet you don't see your entry listed, please let me know ASAP.

If you want to audit the brackets from my household, entries from my family are Matthew Olsen #1, Matthew Olsen #2, Matthew Olsen #3, and Bobby ******* Hurley. Print now or forever hold your peace.

Reflecting the wide-open nature of this year's tournament, 15 different teams were picked to win it all. Villanova was the most popular pick, being selected on 49 brackets (23.8%). Virginia is close behind being picked on 42 sheets, with Michigan State (27) and Duke (26) also right there. North Carolina and Kansas were also picked by 10 or more brackets as well.

I will be away from my computer for most of the day so updates will be sporadic. My apologies. Enjoy the games and good luck to you all.


3/15/18 6:35am - We had a flurry of entries yesterday and are up to 174. Looks like the prize fund will be roughly on par with the last several years.


3/14/18 9:15am - Only 74 entries so far this year. Running well behind prior years. UConn being out maybe? All the scandals? Too many people binge-watching The Crown instead of watching college hoops?


3/11/18 11:00am - Welcome to the 19th annual Moose Resorts NCAA Basketball Pool, coming up on two decades of prognostication fun. Before we dive into the usual rules intro, a couple of notes...

I've had a couple of questions, mostly in jest, about how I handle things like a vacated title. The answer is that prize payments are, of course, final. Pool management feels that the NCAA's belief that they have this giant magic eraser that allows them to change the past is pretty foolish. So, don't be dismayed if the team you've chosen cheats, just so long as they aren't discovered until after the pool is over.

Also, I'm afraid that with my current workload I've needed to start contemplating giving up pool management each March. Luckily for me (well, for all of us who enjoy this pool), I've found a great person to take it over when I give it up. Jason Hilby assumes the role of "Apprentice Pool Manager" this year, and leaves me confident that when I do turn this pool over to him in a future year that it will be in great hands. Thank you Jay.

So, onto the logistics: I expect approximately 175-250 entrants this year, which would yield a first place prize of over $1000. Full details and rules are in the Frequently Asked Questions, but here are the highlights:


If you're new to the pool, and want to see what the pool page looks like, here's last year's pool.


Questions? Email me here.