2005 NCAA Tournament Pool

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STANDINGS THROUGH THE GAMES OF 4/2

"If God isn't a Tar Heel, then why did He make the sky Carolina Blue?"
-University of North Carolina Bumper Sticker

"If God isn't an Illini fan, then why did He make oranges orange?"
-Suggestion for a University of Illinois Bumper Sticker (I couldn't find anything on Google)

Despite the fact that University of North Carolina clearly does a superior job of marketing its bumper stickers, the two clubs should be evenly matched on the hardwood Monday night.  It's an either-or situation for all eight people still alive for a prize.  Unlike many previous years, no one is guaranteed any money at all going into the game.  Add Kawiecki-Guzzardi to famous rivalries like Hatfield-McCoy and Ali-Frazier, as there's a lot at stake for those two in the final game.  Mr. Clark was the bridesmaid in 2003 when Kansas's poor free-throw shooting knocked him out of first place in the final game.  Mr. Antolini is last year's champion and competes for a prize year-in and year-out.  Good luck to all who remain.

Thank you all for playing.  I'll try to get in touch with all the winners during the day on Tuesday to discuss how to deliver your prize.  Enjoy the game.

STANDINGS THROUGH THE GAMES OF 3/27

What a weekend of basketball!  Three games that couldn't be decided in regulation!  An amazing buzzer beater to force OT in Kentucky-Michigan State!  Two amazing comebacks on Saturday!  For all you true college hoops fans out there this was one of the finest weekends ever.

We're down to three possible winners in the pool.  Patrick Guzzardi is in the best shape, winning the top prize in five of the eight possible outcomes.  However Jake Kawiecki is still doing great, as he'll win the pool if the #1-ranked Fighting Illini manage to cut down the nets in St. Louis.  Mark Citrone will pull it out if Louisville manages to beat Michigan State in the final game.  All together 14 different entries have a chance at some level of prize.  You can look at the eight possible remaining outcomes below to see if you're one of the lucky live entries.  If not, feel free to join me in preparing for baseball season and the glorious celebration of watching the Red Sox get their World Series rings.  Then it's time to start looking forward to March Madness in 2006.  Good luck to everyone remaining!  The next update will be Sunday morning.

STANDINGS THROUGH THE GAMES OF 3/26

No big changes but two close calls last night.  Both Louisville and Illinois came back from double-digit deficits against West Virginia and Arizona respectively.  Either of those games going the other way would have had a profound effect on the pool, but since neither upset happened it's just business as usual.  There were virtually no changes at the top of the standings. 

Patrick Guzzardi is still on top.  Jake Kawiecki still has the highest possible maximum score with 130.  2002 pool champion Jennifer Gaunce is still right behind Jake with a maximum possible score of 129. Bryan Clark #1 still has the maximum possible score of all the players who selected North Carolina to win.  If you want more detail, just go to the Picks Page.

 Here's how the brackets are holding up:

• 4 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 1.3%

• 3 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 10.2%

• 2 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 39.8%

• 1 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 35.6%

• 0 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 13.1%

No one sent me any corrections so all the brackets are locked and final.  Also the payouts are now considered final.  The few people who haven't paid me are ones who I'll cover until the check arrives.  There was no reduction in the originally stated prize pool.

Tonight I'll figure out everyone who is mathematically eliminated from prize contention and post the exact scenarios the remaining contestants need in order to finish in the money.  It'll probably be 9:00pm or 10:00pm before the next update, but that should answer any questions you may have about your status in the pool.  Then it's just a waiting game until Saturday's Final Four matchups.  Good luck everyone!

STANDINGS THROUGH THE GAMES OF 3/25

We're getting to crunch time in the pool!  Duke's loss to Michigan State last night caused quite a number of brackets to go into the trash can.  Had UNC not pulled out a one-point win against Villanova most entries would've been in real trouble.  The entire Syracuse bracket would've been finished from our perspective since no one had either Villanova or Wisconsin advancing to the Final Four.  If you had told me at the beginning of this tournament that three Big Ten teams were going to make the Elite Eight I would've laughed hysterically.  Considering that the Big Ten has more teams left than the Big East and ACC combined I think they've provided a great response to many of the naysayers.  

Patrick Guzzardi is still in the lead all by himself, but he took a couple dings to his maximum possible score last night.  Jake Kawiecki now has the highest possible maximum score with 130.  2002 pool champion Jennifer Gaunce is right behind Jake with a maximum possible score of 129. Now that we're getting to crunch time you may be tempted to check out the brackets of your closest competitors if you're still in the pool.  Remember, if you want to see the teams any player has picked just go to the Picks Page.  All 236 brackets are there.

Last night's Duke loss hammered the last team out of a few brackets' Final Four selection.  With four games remaining before the Final Four is set, here's how the brackets are holding up:

• 4 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 1.3%

• 3 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 11.4%

• 2 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 42.8%

• 1 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 33.5%

• 0 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 11.0%

I should also note no one picked either Wisconsin or West Virginia to make the Final Four, so if those two teams manage to pull off upsets over the next two days all the remaining brackets will have some serious holes.

No one sent me any corrections so all the brackets are locked and final.  Also the payouts are now considered final.  The few people who haven't paid me are ones who I'll cover until the check arrives.  There was no reduction in the originally stated prize pool.

The next update will be Sunday morning.  Good luck with tonight's games.  

STANDINGS THROUGH THE GAMES OF 3/24

Sounds like last night's late game between Arizona and Oklahoma State was one for the ages.  Too bad it was past my bedtime.  Arizona's bucket with 2.8 seconds left in regulation doomed 32 entries that had picked Oklahoma State to win it all, and nicked over 80 that had picked them to make it to St. Louis.  Meanwhile the Beast of the Big East, West Virginia, rolled on to a date with Louisville.  This would be the biggest thing to happen to West Virginia since the introduction of indoor plumbing (which I think was about six months ago).  None of the other three games had a huge effect on the pool, though Washington's loss to Louisville did knock out a Final Four team for a lot of entries.  Only eight brackets still have their entire Final Four in tact.

Patrick Guzzardi has a monster bracket working, with not only the highest current score but also the highest maximum score possible.  If the Tar Heels win the national championship he's going to be tough (but not impossible) to catch.  For those of you wondering if you're mathematically eliminated due to duplication of remaining picks I'm afraid I can't help you yet.  My software isn't that robust.  However, after Sunday's games I will run each possible remaining scenario left (there are only eight possible outcomes after the Final Four is set) and give you a list of everyone still mathematically alive for a prize.  

Here's how the entries fared in selecting their Final Four teams so far:

• 4 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 3.4%

• 3 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 31.8%

• 2 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 35.2%

• 1 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 25.8%

• 0 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 3.8%

No one sent me any corrections so all the brackets are locked and final.  Also the payouts are now considered final.  The few people who haven't paid me are ones who I'll cover until the check arrives.  There was no reduction in the originally stated prize pool.

The next update will be Saturday morning.  Good luck with tonight's games.  

STANDINGS THROUGH THE GAMES OF 3/20

Lacrimosa dies illa (That day of tears and mourning)
qua resurget ex favilla (when from the ashes will arise)
judicandus UConnus Huskius reus (all Husky Nation to be judged)
-W.A. Mozart's Requiem in d minor K. 626 (sort of)

Tears are flowing from the UConn faithful today after a sub-par effort against North Carolina State (who share a building with the Carolina Hurricanes of the NHL, who were formerly the Hartford Whalers) doomed the Huskies to miss the Sweet Sixteen.  The question of which Big East team would fare best in the tournament, B.C., UConn, or Syracuse, has been answered with a resounding "none of the above".  West Virginia and Villanova are now carrying the Big East banner, and I wish them luck throughout the rest of the tourney.

Nick Corsetti and Josh Williams are tied for first with 47 points.  Patrick Guzzardi has the highest possible maximum score remaining with 138 if everything goes his way.  Lots of entries are still alive for the prize with so many different teams chosen to win it all.  Only one of my entries (#2) has any significant hope of winning a prize.  If the Washington Huskies don't win the national championship that should cinch up another year where my reputation for fairness stays in tact by denying anyone named "Olsen" a prize.

In case you're wondering, here's how the brackets are holding up in terms of Final Four picks left alive:

• 4 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 14.4%

• 3 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 38.6%

• 2 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 37.3%

• 1 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 9.3%

• 0 out of 4 Final Four teams alive: 0.4% (not coincidentally the only entry that picked Niagara to go to the Final Four)

One quick but very important reminder: if I made an error in your bracket I need to know by Tuesday.  I will not accept any corrections once Tuesday has come and gone.  I don't believe I've made any errors, but it wouldn't hurt you to check.  Send me an email if you find something.

The next update will be Friday morning.  Enjoy your week.  Good luck to everyone.  

STANDINGS THROUGH THE GAMES OF 3/19

"B.C. sucks.  Don't forget this."
-Bill Simmons (ESPN.com Page 2 columnist, making his bracket predictions before the tourney started)

Well, I had the pool index page all set to go around 9:30pm Saturday night, advancing both Wake Forest and Kentucky.  Of course Wake Forest then went ahead and had the most monumental collapse of a #2 seed against a lower seed opponent in tournament history, knocking out 19 players and shaking loose a Final Four team from over 100 brackets.  I was too tired to redo the standings last night, so here I am, Sunday morning, surveying the damage.  I put that header quote up back when I thought that Boston College's loss to #12-seed U.Wisc.-Milwaukee would be one of Saturday's biggest upsets.  That game had some impact on the pool as two contestants had picked B.C. to win it all.  Oklahoma's loss to the Utes also took out two players.  Gonzaga's loss to Bobby "The Dark" Knight and Texas Tech also did a lot of damage because, while only one entrant had chosen the 'Zags to win it all, twenty-five entrants did have them going to the Final Four.  Eight of the remaining 24 teams will be knocked out Sunday, and that will certainly bust a lot of brackets.  The Georgia Tech-Louisville game alone will knock out a Final Four team for at least 18 entries no matter which way it goes.  Only 24.6% of the entries submitted still have all four Final Four teams in tact.

John Mercer, Brit O'Hara, and Brian Fraser #2 are in first place right now with 38 points.  I can't remember the last time someone kept first place for consecutive days on the opening weekend of the tournament, so congratulations go out to Mr. Fraser for accomplishing that feat.  I think his celebration will be tempered by the fact his bracket predicted a Wake Forest-Syracuse final game, but his early round predictions have been exceptional.

The final update of the weekend will be Sunday night, about 90 minutes after the final game of the day wraps up.  Good luck to everyone.  

STANDINGS THROUGH THE GAMES OF 3/18

Little Bill Daggett (Gene Hackman): "I don't deserve this... to die like this. I was building a house."
Bill Munny (Clint Eastwood): "Deserve's got nothin' to do with it."
-Unforgiven (1992)

Jayhawks and Orangemen fans probably feel much like Little Bill this morning.  Syracuse lost to Vermont and Kansas fell to Bucknell in huge upsets, taking out 12 entries' champion picks.  Thursday's games may have been extremely predictable, but Friday night's upsets reminded fans just how exciting this tournament can be.  There are several fantastic match-ups scheduled for the weekend, such as Georgia Tech-Louisville, Villanova-Florida, and Cincinnati-Kentucky.  College basketball fans should be in heaven with sixteen games to be played before Sunday night.  I love March!

When you look at today's standings you'll notice that the maximum possible scores of several entries have fallen sharply since Thursday.  Two roundball prognosticators who managed to pick 28 out of the 32 first round games correctly, Phil Albert and Brian Fraser #2, currently share first place.  There'll probably be entirely new people in first after today's games simply because no one ever seems to hold first place for consecutive days on the opening weekend (no offense Phil and Brian).

 Good luck to everyone in today's games.  The next update will be early Sunday morning, or possibly late Saturday night if I'm not too sleepy.  

STANDINGS THROUGH THE GAMES OF 3/17

Welcome to the 6th Annual Moose Resorts NCAA Pool.  March Madness got underway today with 16 fairly boring games with no big upsets to be had.  Some of the underdogs kept it close longer than expected, but the only real down-to-the-buzzer suspense came in the West Virginia-Creighton game.  The Quakers looked like they were going to give BC a run early today, but BC turned it on before halftime to put it away.  The University of Pennsylvania is an excellent academic institution (one of America's finest), but "The Quakers" is just not a nickname for a Division I sports team.  Mascots should be cool animals, preferably hunters, or some other destructive thing.  Names like "The Hippie Pacifists" and "The Stoic Debaters" are fine for Division III schools, but at the Big Dance you need to come with something more intimidating.  Maybe if the Quaker had a tough goatee, sunglasses, and nunchucks he'd be a force to be reckoned with.  The close-to-chalk results led to a lot of high scores, with five entries going 15-for-16.  Congrats to Allison Hamilton #2, Brien Bialaski, Greg Morin #1, Christian Dewees, and Simon Hamilton #1.  The good news is if you're on that list you're tied for first.  The bad news is that no one who's been in the lead after day one in the previous five pools has gone on to win.  Time will tell if that streak holds again...

The entries have a wide distribution of teams picked to win.  No one team garnered more than 25% of the selections, though Illinois (24.6%) and North Carolina (22.5%) came close.  The surprising statistic to me this year is that out of 236 entries only one picked the #1-seeded Washington Huskies to win it all (for what it's worth the entry is mine, so "Go U.W.!!!").  I thought Boston College wasn't getting any respect, but at least two entries picked them to cut down the nets in St. Louis.  Full statistics for choices to win each region as well as to win the whole tournament are available in the PDF standings document.

I should also point out that every bracket in the whole pool is available to view by going to the Picks Page.  They're in PDF format so they're easy to print.  You can also print my four brackets as well as my wife's if you want to audit my running of the pool.  Paul G. was given a copy of each of those five entries before Thursday's tip-offs for verification purposes.  If you notice an error on your bracket please email me right away to let me know.  If the error is my fault I will of course fix it provided it's pointed out to me no later than Tuesday March 22nd.  At that point the brackets will lock and become final.  If the error is due to an omission or error of yours then the brackets can not be changed.  Whenever people left a game blank I chose the higher seed playing to win.  If you entered but you don't see your pick on the Picks Page please let me know ASAP.  If I erred and just accidentally passed over it in my email box I'll certainly let you in with the picks that are certainly still residing somewhere on my hard drive.  If it was due to your error or some sort of email force majeure then I'm afraid I can't accept the entry now that 16 games have passed.

There were 236 entries in the pool.  If all of the receivables are good that will make first prize $765.  In the past I've had 99%+ collection success, not to mention I have apx. 75% of the entry fees in hand already with the rest expected to arrive in the mail within a day or two, so I can't imagine that figure would slip below $750.  2nd prize is tentatively $235, 3rd prize is $120, 4th prize is $60.  Good luck to everyone.  Next update will be Saturday morning.

See all the entries in the 2005 pool in PDF format on the Picks Page.  You can also see all the picks on one page here.

Click here for the results of the 2004 NCAA Pool.

Click here for the results of the 2003 NCAA Pool.

Click here for the results of the 2002 NCAA Pool.

If you have any questions, send me an email at ncaa@mattolsen.com.